Wednesday, August 5th, 2009
Just a few days into August and markets seem to have picked up where they left off in July.
Here’s a summary of market action and key developments from last month, including monthly benchmarks.
- Investors saw more data indicating that healing is underway in the global economy. Increased optimism paved the way for a fifth consecutive month of gains across world markets.
- International stocks advanced. The MSCI World Index returned 8.4% (in $US terms). Since March 9th, the MSCI Asia Index has risen about 58% in local currency terms.
- Commodity prices rose. Copper is up more than 80% year-to-date supported by increased demand from China. The S&P/TSX Composite Index benefited, adding 4%. The S&P/TSX has climbed 45% since hitting a five-year low on March 9th.
- In the U.S., stocks made up more ground. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) had its best month since 2002, up 8.6% . The S&P 500 Index advanced for the fifth consecutive month (the longest streak since 2007) gaining 7.6% . The S&P 500 is now up more than 40% since March 9th and Monday, it closed above the 1,000 level for the first time since November 2008.
- Volatility continued to be a key theme in currency markets. After falling more than 6% against the U.S. dollar in June, the Canadian dollar appreciated by 7.4% versus its U.S. counterpart in July. This cut into returns on investments denominated in $US. Case in point, the 7.4% gain on the S&P 500 was essentially wiped out when converted back to C$.
With much of the latest economic news continuing to look less bad (over 70% of companies beat expectations last quarter and it appears US housing may have found a bottom), the economy looks to be on the mend.
However, we must realize that the rate of recovery that we are seeing is not normal and likely cannot be maintained long-term. That said, as an investor looking out 5+ years I belive valuations in the equity market are still low and the potential remains for double-digit returns heading forward over a 5+ year horizon.
Posted in Investment News | 2 Comments »
Monday, October 13th, 2008
Why Do We Invest When We Have No Control?
Even during the most trying times for the market, it is important to understand why it is that we are investing our hard earned cash into public companies of which we have little to no control over.
It’s true. We are buying pieces of companies, in the form of common stock, that we have no control over the operations of the company.
Basically, we are saying “Here, you guys take my money to invest in your business and I will sit back and wait for you to do a good job so that I can get a return on my investment”. When we think of it this way, investing in common stock makes little sense – if any sense at all.
Many investors prefer to invest in their own businesses whereby they have control over the operations of the company, and thus, the outcomes of the business. This makes intuitive sense, but what we as dividend growth investors are trying to do is to produce constantly growing retirement income of the completely passive variety.
So What’s The Difference?
The major difference is that while we lack control of the companies that we buy stocks in, we also relieve ourselves of the responsibility of running those companies profitably. This creates a passive and growing income stream.
We all know that running a businesses takes a lot of time, skill, effort, and energy – as well as a little luck. This is time, energy and skill that most of us do not have. However, we can participate in the efforts of others by purchasing dividend growth stocks and reaping our small, but growing, dividends.
Work One Time, Get Paid Forever
Theoretically, and many times practically as well, we can input one unit of work and get paid forever. Indeed, our main goal as dividend growth investors is to work once (evaluating and purchasing a dividend growth stock) and get paid forever in continuous dividends…ideally with annual raises!
The title of this article states that our retirement income is on sale. While this is true, we do have to be very careful to do our due diligence in bear markets to pick out stocks that have been unjustly beaten down and whose dividends and future earnings are likely to increase.
Easier Diversification
While having control over one’s own business can be profitable and offers the ability to make changes to react to market conditions, it also concentrates the investment.
As much as we preach about diversification and asset allocation in our stock portfolios, it is easy to forget the need for diversification when we talk about our own businesses.
Investing in the stocks of dividend growing companies allows for the diversification of funds among several high quality companies that meet the requirements of our dividend growth model. This diversification will allow for multiple consistently growing income streams which is an ideal way to fund retirement.
Why Now?
The current market has given us dividend growth investors the opportunity to identify our favorite dividend growth stocks and purchase them (some at prices we have not seen in our lifetime).
I’m not calling a bottom for stocks here, but I am confident that we are closer to a bottom than we are to a top at this point. Regardless of the direction of the market tomorrow, there are stocks out there that have been unjustly beaten down and are offering consistent and even growing dividends.
For more on how to find these stocks, check out my article on how to choose dividend growth stocks and then stop by The Dividend Network for stock analysis from the top dividend bloggers on the internet.
Posted in Investor Education | 7 Comments »
Tuesday, October 7th, 2008
Evaluating the dividend payout ratio lets us focus on companies that have enough internal growth to give us those dividend increases that we want each year.
As we know, these dividend increases will help our portfolio income beat inflation over time and provide us with a growing income in retirement.
How To Calculate The Payout Ratio
The dividend payout ratio is calculated by dividing the dividend paid by the net income per share.
Dividend Paid/Net Income per Share = Dividend Payout Ratio
Why The Payout Ratio Is Important
For the most part, we should be looking for stocks that have a dividend payout ratio somewhere between 40-60%. This allows a good portion of the profits to be paid to the shareholder as well as allowing for some of the profits to be plowed back into the company to create more internal growth.
The higher the dividend payout ratio, the less profits are invested back into the business to create future growth. In our dividend growth strategy, we look for companies that invest back into the business in order to create more growth that will allow for another increase in the dividend.
Can Companies Pay out More Than They Earn
As we mentioned before, dividend payout ratios of greater than 100% are possible, but very difficult to sustain and significantly hamper the growth of the business.
In tough economies temporary increases in the dividend payout ratio can be common because it can be very damaging to a stock if the company suspends or lowers the dividend.
High yields may look appealing at first, but we must ensure that the dividend is both sustainable and able to grow.
Posted in Investment News | 13 Comments »
Tuesday, September 30th, 2008
Where To Start Your Research
When starting your research for dividend growth stocks, much of the work has already been done for us. We just need to know where to find it!
Start out by reviewing the Dividend Aristocrats or Dividend Achievers lists to identify a broad category of stocks that have consistent dividend growth.
Once you have identified a list of stocks using the dividend achievers list, it is time to narrow it down to a few of the best dividend growth stocks.
Sector Selection
A general rule of thumb for dividend growth investors is to select one or two stocks in different sectors, such as insurance, utilities, financials, telecom, etc., with the higher than average dividend yield and a recent dividend increase.
Many dividend growth investors will require that the dividend increase be within the past year, the more recent the better. Dividend growth investors are of the philosophy that an increase in a company’s dividend means that the company is healthy and its future prospects are solid. Therefore, the amount that the dividend is increased should also be taken into consideration.
Dividend Growth Rate
The amount that a dividend is increased on a year to year basis is called the dividend growth rate. The philosophy of dividend investors is that the higher the dividend growth rate, the higher the prospect for the stock to increase in value.
For instance, Sun Life Financial (SLF) has a dividend growth rate of approximately 20% over the past 5 years. Over that same time, the stock has doubled in value from $20.00 per share to over $40.00 per share. If you had purchased Sun Life Financial 5 years ago at $20.00 per share, with the current dividend rate of $1.07, your yield on the purchase price would be 5.4%.
Not only would one be receiving these healthy dividends this year, but one could reasonably expect to get a 20% raise next year!
This is the basis of dividend growth investing; to produce consistent and inflation hedged income.
Due to the fact that the dividend growth rate can play such a significant factor in the future value and income potential of the stock, it is suggested that the investor find a middle ground when choosing stocks for a dividend growth portfolio.
The middle ground should consist of:
1.) A reasonable current yield, compared to its peers and itself historically.
2.) A recent dividend increase combined with increased earnings
3.) A high dividend growth rate compared to the industry.
Stocks selected from Mergent’s Dividend Achievers that display these factors should provide a great starting point to a dividend growth portfolio.
With the recent turmoil in the markets, now is an especially great time to search for financial services companies and banks that have strong balance sheets and are well capitalized. Consumer staples and health care stocks are also viewed as potential safe havens and opportunity stocks in this type of market.
I’d be happy to hear any comments or questions regarding this strategy and I hope to have more detailed information up here in the near future.
Posted in Stock Studies | 22 Comments »
